![]() ![]() Joshua.hermsmeyer: The basic calculus isn’t that difficult, and really it’s not all that much to do with analytics, more probabilistic thinking. If the Ravens are the clearly better team, should they just tie the game and take it to overtime rather than take the chance on the one play? In other words, if they had a win probability of 61 percent going in, which is what the FiveThirtyEight model had, do their calculated odds of getting the 2-point conversation have to be greater than 61 percent for it to be the right call, mathematically, over tying the game? Salfino: I would have wanted the Ravens to go for it if I were a Steelers fan, so it did not feel like the right call to me. Just a bit off on the execution.Īnd I mean just a bit - another inch and Andrews has that.īut Harbaugh has gotten increasingly drunk on risk-taking, and I am here for it. Neil: I liked the call and the play call, even. Joshua.hermsmeyer: It was the right call. #BALvsPIT /tl74jaHz9x- NFL December 6, 2021 Watt in his face, Jackson threw a pass just off Mark Andrews’s fingertips, and the Ravens lost 20-19. Instead of bringing on Justin Tucker for the PAT, coach John Harbaugh kept his offense on the field to attempt a game-winning 2-point conversion. ![]() But Lamar Jackson led a lightning-fast drive down the field, and the Ravens scored 6 points with 12 seconds left. The Steelers could manage only a field goal through the first three quarters of the game, but they stormed back in the fourth quarter for 17 points, taking a 20-13 lead with 1:48 left. Let’s get into the never-ending “go for 2” debate! But it was the Ravens’ overall play and final decision that I want to focus on. By beating Baltimore, the Steelers pushed their playoff odds (according to the FiveThirtyEight model) from 10 to 18 percent and kept some drama going in what sounds like will be Ben Roethlisberger’s final season. Sara.ziegler: Let’s talk about those Steelers! They actually played a (somewhat) important game on Sunday. Salfino: The miraculous loser Vikings playing the miraculous winner Steelers. Neil: I have a feeling they will either beat or lose to the Steelers by 8 points or less. Sara.ziegler: Anyway, how exciting that the Vikings get a primetime spot Thursday night, on short rest and with several important players injured. Neil: Yes, how great is it that they avoided going a calendar year without a win? Salfino: The Lions did it inside a year at least. How exhausted will the Lions be after celebrating their first win in 364 days? That’s massively party-worthy IMO. Neil: The Lions were just trying desperately to affirm their status as Michigan’s best football team after the Wolverines locked up the Big Ten and a playoff spot Saturday. Salfino: And I understand they put the sauce on top of the pizza. ![]()
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